Most of you will have seen the UFC breakdown's by Dan Hardy and Robin Black both of which are amazing breakdowns. This article is going to be my own take on how each fighter can win the fight.
Right I'll start with Nate Diaz. We all know that Diaz has the ability to beat McGregor. The UFC did very good breakdowns on Diaz. The first thing I will talk about is the head movement of Diaz. The only thing I feel that was missed out of the other breakdowns I've seen is this. The breakdowns talked about the shoulder roll, Diaz used his right shoulder to block McGregor's left hand causing it to glance off of his head, stopping the full impact from hitting his chin.
However one thing I remember talking to my coach about when the first fight was announced was the ability that Diaz has to lean back just an inch away out of the punch or kick. This could become a complete game changer because of the way Conor throws his left hand. If you watch a birds eye view of the end result of the left hand his fist is by his hip. If Diaz was to throw a right hook straight left combo at this point Conor wouldn't be able to defend it in any way. We didn't see this during the first fight because Diaz took the fight on eleven days notice and he didn't spar before the fight. Any fighter or martial artist will agree with this statement, when you take time off of sparring the first thing to go is your timing. So when you come back you end up getting caught with shots you normally would slip out of the way of. Diaz even mentioned this in his post fight interview which everyone has forgotten about.
JIU JITSU!! Nate Diaz is a black belt under Cesar Gracie (anyone who does not know who the Gracie's are never read this blog again and go watch tennis!) for over a decade. Diaz's twenty wins twelve of them are made up of submission wins. All three of McGregor's losses are by submission. Even with McGregor bringing in a jiu jitsu specialist for the last eighteen weeks will not be enough. Yes it will help raise his game if he was fighting a Chad Mendes or Frankie Edgar who is going to take you down and beat you up, that jiu jitsu help will make you more comfortable on your back.
However when you are grappling with a Jiu Jitsu practitioner on the level of Diaz eighteen months isn't enough let alone eighteen weeks. However Diaz only has thirty two percent take down accuracy. Diaz has so many submissions due to the fact he puts so much pressure on his opponents that they mentally break and shoot for a take down even if it successful Diaz is in his element.
The final point I have is that he needs to keep the fight in boxing range NOT Conor's kicking range. (which I'll talk about in McGregor's breakdown.) Nate Diaz has been boxing since he was a young kid with his brother. Diaz has a very unorthodox style of boxing where he throws his punches at fifty percent power until he sees that he has you hurt. He also throws his shots as a flick so there is no load up for example his hooks are more like slaps.
Now for the Notorious one. Conor did have a huge amount of success in the first encounter. However if he plans on fighting the same way again and hoping for the same success he could be in for a long and rough night. Not because Conor's skills have decreased but because of the points I touched upon.
The first thing McGregor needs to do is check his ego as soon as his music hits those speakers. He went in to the last fight emotionally invested because of Diaz's blatant disrespect and disinterest in Conor. What I mean by checking his ego is going back to his footwork. Diaz is the bigger guy and loves a dog fight so walking flat footed and meeting him in the middle of the octagon is what he wants. Conor needs to use his footwork to get him into his striking distance and not just walk through Nate's.
Secondly the Notorious one needs to use his kicks. This will eliminate the range advantage help by Diaz, because as everyone knows a leg is longer than an arm. Conor will definitely win the exchanges of legs, but you can argue that Diaz is the better boxer even though Conor has great hands and is a national boxing champion. Nate Diaz spars with Andre Ward. He needs to diversify his kicks to keep Diaz guessing. So throwing everything from side kicks to the body and thigh to hook kicks to the head. The more straight kicks he uses such as side kicks and push kicks the harder it will be for Diaz to utilize his game plan.
The final thing is DO NOT I repeat DO NOT GO FOR A FUCKING TAKE DOWN. Now we all know McGregor is a true champion and as a result will want to prove he can take Diaz down and do damage, but please I beg you do not do it, it isn't worth it.
That is my brief analysis of how I feel both fighters can win this fight. Feel free to comment with any points I may have missed.
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