On Friday night the second of three events in the UFC Fight week which will be capped by UFC 200 on Saturday night, TUF 23 Finale will decide the winner in the strawweight and light heavyweight divisions, it will also decide the UFC strawweight champion in the main event Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Claudia Gadelha.
The rematch of this fight is highly anticipated and has been hyped up by the recent season of The Ultimate Fighter in which Team Joanna and Team Claudia went head-to-head in competition in the strawweight and light heavyweight divisions. There was a lot of tension on the programme and seemed to be started by Joanna as her team lost a lot of the fights and was looking to gain some sort of mental edge on Claudia heading into their fight on Friday. There were some very intense moments where Joanna confronted Claudia and had her against the wall and Claudia didn't do anything, this can be viewed in two different ways. Claudia could be seen as afraid of Joanna and backing down or alternatively trying not to get in trouble on the show before their fight, unfortunately that view point is thrown out the window when you realise that Joanna and Claudia had a full on fight backstage reportedly in one of the corridors on the set of TUF 23.
These two have fought before and Joanna won by an incredibly close split decision. I am a huge fan of Joanna but I thought that Claudia won that fight along with many others, however having said that in this sport if it's incredibly close and you leave it to the judges anything can happen, both fighters will be looking for the finish on Friday. The first fight was back in December of 2014 and since then both fighters have improved their technique and gained more experience against extremely tough opponents leading them to meet again inside the octagon. Since the defeat Claudia has gone unbeaten and Joanna has continued her undefeated streak including KO's of former champion Carla Esparza, Jessica Penne and a unanimous decision victory over Valerie Letourneau.
In this fight I believe the pivotal factor will be the takedown of Claudia, if Joanna can defend the takedown (which is a big if) then Joanna will easily get the decision and potentially KO/TKO her with her striking being so much more advanced than Claudia and anyone in the division, Joe Rogan has called her potentially the best striker in MMA regardless of weight class and gender. The power she possesses at such a light weight class is astonishing which is created by the stunning speed and accuracy of her striking. Joanna has one of the best takedown defences in her division that we've seen in her recent fights, her record is 84.13% on her takedown defence but in recent fights it has been incredible and played a huge role in her being able to keep the fight standing and able to unleash her striking without fear of being taken down.
The key to Claudia's game plan has to be the takedown, Claudia has an excellent takedown a great Jiu Jitsu game with a 46% submission finish rate, If Claudia can take Joanna down repeatedly and tire her out then capitalize on the ground with ground and pound then look to lock in submissions then she is really dangerous and could finish the fight, especially when we're not really sure how good Joanna's Jiu Jitsu game is as we've not really seen anyone been able to take her down consistently and test it apart from Claudia in their last fight. Let's also not forget that Claudia is a very muscular figure and possesses a lot of power and if she manages to catch Joanna she could have a devastating effect (but this is also a big if) Joanna's movement is also at an elite level and is difficult to catch which also plays into the takedown defence.
This could be another very close fight but I'm going with Joanna to take the win and retain the strawweight championship, both fighters have the potential to finish the fight but I believe that Joanna has had the octagon time and has sharpened her skills up just enough where she could squeak out a 48-47 split decision victory.
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